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Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season
Tropical Storm Bertha (Final time... I think! :P) If i were the NHC i'dve issued the final advisory at 11pm. This is clearly extratropical. But maybe they are continuing them as its a serious threat to iceland? 70mph winds + 30mph motion = not good. -Winter123 03:39, 20 July 2008 (UTC) :Looking at the maps, looks like NHC will be declaring it Extratropical by late Sunday. They also predict that Bertha will hit Iceland as an extratropical storm by mid-day Monday. If Bertha can keep most of her strength, Iceland may be getting a rough storm in two days... - Enzo Aquarius 04:05, 20 July 2008 (UTC) ::From Forecast discussion 69*: ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF BERTHA STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT SYMMETRIC...I.E. TROPICAL...AND A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN WDC6925 REPORTED 44 KT WINDS NOT FAR FROM THE CENTER...WHICH IS ALSO INDICATIVE OF A TROPICAL STRUCTURE. -- 13:51, 20 July 2008 (UTC) :::A perfect 70 Advisories! Bye Bertha. 18 days for a tropical system is impressive, moreso in July. 1100 AM AST SUN JUL 20 2008 ...BERTHA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... Projected to hit iceland tomorrow evening Will there be 70mph + 40mph motion = 110mph winds on the east side? This could cause serious damage! Hope they are prepared. -Winter123 15:20, 20 July 2008 (UTC) ::::What's that? I hear some shouting coming from the far north Atlantic: "Yipee ki yay motherf***ers!!!!" -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:07, 20 July 2008 (UTC) :::::Geez, even though Bertha's advisories have ended, she's still packing a punch. Iceland better really be getting ready for this. - Enzo Aquarius 01:04, 21 July 2008 (UTC) This image shows you just how close it got to bermuda. (Zoom in on the eye of the tropical storm, youll see the island outline) Theyre just lucky it didnt stall here. I did a bit of research, the only storm to hit iceland at least in the past 30 years was alberto in 2002. In fact it made it all the way east of Jan Mayen before being absorbed, which is insane as thats getting really close to the north pole. I think bertha has been absorbed by a larger system and is probably affecting iceland now, but I cant get satellite for obvious reasons, and i cant find any news. Do they have radar?? Anyone find anything?? -Winter123 04:06, 21 July 2008 (UTC) :I have to agree with you, looking at satelite, I think Bertha got absorbed by another system. I can't see Bertha anymore, so she may be gone. - Enzo Aquarius 15:58, 21 July 2008 (UTC) ::Try looking in this image to find Bertha, presently I think just southeast of Greenland's southern tip. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:23, 21 July 2008 (UTC) :::Looking at Bertha even though it didnt do much damage yet it has got to be a candiate now for Retirement at the end of the season Jason Rees 21:56, 21 July 2008 (UTC) ::::Winter, Al can't touch Faith in 1966, which didn't become extratropical until it was about to make landfall in Norway. The remnant low was tracked as far north as Franz Josef Land, which is barely 300 miles from Santa's house. Don't think they sell plywood up there. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:38, 22 July 2008 (UTC) July Week One 93L.INVEST NRL's showing a new invest, on the border of the Carribbean, sitting on top of Martinique. --Patteroast 20:43, 2 July 2008 (UTC) :Wow, another invest in the Caribbean! Don't know where this one's going, models seem to be agreeing on the general track but not the exact track. I'm predicting, with still-limited data, but then again NHC just had a new update so I'll go check that, I'm predicting TS Christobal landfall on the Dominican Republic, then Cuba, then Cat. 1 landfall on Florida. Let's see what this one does. The oceans are still warming up, but the weason's getting active already. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:04, 2 July 2008 (UTC) ::Heavy shear. Looks like a small thunderstorm that would form a tornado in the midwest, except moving in the opposite direction. IMO this one has a 0.000...0001% chance. -Winter123 04:51, 3 July 2008 (UTC) (I shortened your number of zeros. Sorry, the page stretching out forever was driving me nuts. :P --Patteroast 23:44, 5 July 2008 (UTC)) ::Lol suit yourself. Anyway I was right, this got nowhere near developing. Sheared to death south of puerto rico-Winter123 03:40, 9 July 2008 (UTC) :::A 0.000...0001% chance of what? Spawning a tornado in the midwest? Its chances are probably a lot higher than that, but you never know. SHIPS brings it up to a TS within 120 hours, I think it has a chance of emerging in the Gulf, though. Let's see what it does, if anything. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:43, 3 July 2008 (UTC) :It practically turned to nothing overnight. This just should not have been declared.-Winter123 17:06, 3 July 2008 (UTC) Week Two 04L.DOLLY AoI: Central Atlantic Some models are predicting one or two storms forming in the Central Atlantic or Caribbean, especially CMC and GFS. Let's see if they form, and if so, what they do. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:14, 12 July 2008 (UTC) :Form from what when where and why? Other than Bertha, there's hardly much rain to speak of anywhere in the entire basin; Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf; let alone potential unrest. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 07:24, 13 July 2008 (UTC) 94L.INVEST Woot! Am I good at this, or what? Models predict it heading into the south Caribbean or Venezuela, SHIPS predicts a cat. 2. NHC has also listed it as medium-chance for development. Let's see what it does, as this I think definitely is one to watch, could become Christobal. 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:38, 13 July 2008 (UTC) :Don't get so full of yourself, models predicted it at least 3 days ago. - 17:23, 13 July 2008 (UTC) ::Goddamnit, I hate when it does this. The moment I say it's strangely dead out there, something bad happens. It's like in the movies when they say, "It's quiet...too quiet." Now the bad guys are shootin' at us. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:07, 13 July 2008 (UTC) :::Some rotation is evident. If this system can just organize itself some more, we may have a Depression. My personal prediction? Category 1 Christobal. - Enzo Aquarius 19:04, 13 July 2008 (UTC) ::::7/9 models predicting TS or above within 120 hours, GFDL with the extra-strong forecast, with a cat. 3. It could enter the Caribbean or track north over Antigua and Barbuda and Puerto Rico, could also enter the Gulf. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:24, 13 July 2008 (UTC) :::::NHC upgraded to High risk of development. I have a great feeling now that 94L will turn into a Depression within a day or two. - Enzo Aquarius 00:31, 14 July 2008 (UTC) I normally don't say this, but I'd be stunned if this doesn't become Cristobal. If you told me it was a tropical storm right now, I wouldn't bat an eye; this thing is very healthy. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:44, 14 July 2008 (UTC) :Hmm, this storm looks awfully familiar...Ernesto, anyone? However, just as Ernesto's early forecast, nowhere in its possible path is out of the woods yet...not even New Orleans. Models are now agreeing on entering the Caribbean, this could really be one to watch. However, there's a flank that's semi-connected to the storm that extends almost to the equator. So, if it enters the Caribbean, Venezuela may need to watch this too, as it could dump a lot of rain. I think it has a good chance of entering the Gulf, so many, many people should be watching this right now. The water in the area is pretty warm, but just like Ernesto, the models don't predict a hurricane until near the end of the 5-day period. The bad thing about hurricanes in this invest's exact spot is, you never know where it will hit. Much of the Gulf Coast got locky from Ernesto, but you never know with these types of storms. Another interesting paradox is, if Bertha strengthens, the gap in the Bermuda high will push this storm north and weaken it like Ernesto, but if Bertha weakens, then the high should push this storm far enough south to affect the Gulf, and maybe even spawn a second storm from that huge flank south of it. Let's see what happens, and I wouldn't be surprised if it were upgraded to Cristobal tonight or tomorrow. 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:50, 14 July 2008 (UTC) ::Judging by the track predictions, I see a little 'Dean' or 'Felix' in this system. Some of the models have almost the exact same track as Dean or Felix had last year... - Enzo Aquarius 17:04, 14 July 2008 (UTC) :::Lost a significant amount of convection overnight but NHC says it's still on the verge. Conditions seem favorable and most of the intensity guidence brings it to at least 45-50 knots in 120 hours. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:30, 14 July 2008 (UTC) ::::NHC still predicts it as high risk of development despite the loss of convection. We may be seeing a Tropical Depression by tonight or tomorrow. - Enzo Aquarius 20:16, 14 July 2008 (UTC) :::::Hmm, a lot of the models are weakening this one or keeping it weak. I think I see a cross between an Ernesto and a Dean, and if so, New Orleans may need to watch this one. I think Haiti, Cuba, and the US Gulf Coast need to pay especially close attention to this one, but just like we learned with Ernesto and Dean, you can't accurately predict a storm like this more than 3 days in advance. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:55, 14 July 2008 (UTC) ::::::Well this thing needs to get its sh!t together in a hurry or it's not even going to be a footnote. I'm stunned by how this thing fell apart. This time yesterday, it looked like Cristobal. Now it looks like scattered showers. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:20, 15 July 2008 (UTC) :::::::As well, NHC has lowered their risk of this storm to moderate. It's still there, but needs to develop more. - Enzo Aquarius 16:39, 15 July 2008 (UTC) ::::::::Cool, it's just had another deep burst of convection! NHC has issued an STD statement, upgraded the development risk to high, and a hurricane hunter is to fly into the system later today and see if a TD has formed, so it looks like we just might have a TD by 5pm. It's already just 10km/h shy of a TS, and models predict movement toward the Dutch islands, then up towards Honduras and the Yucatan, and possibly into the Gulf. I predict it will pass between St. Vincent and Grenada as a TD, then make landfall near Cozumel as a strong TS, then possibly make landfall on Louisiana and Mississippi as a cat. 3, and head into southern Ontario while extratropical, but what happens beyond say Honduras and Jamaica depends on its exact track and potential shear, and if it even makes it there in the first place. Most models are keeping it weak, but CMC heads it into the Pacific to join that other AoI. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:57, 16 July 2008 (UTC) :::::::::The system is developing well by looks of satelite imagery, and it sure is dropping a ton of rain. I wouldn't be surprised if it is declared a TD this afternoon. - Enzo Aquarius 16:31, 16 July 2008 (UTC) I don't know, it looks borderline to me. I wouldn't be surprised if the Hurricane Hunter gets there and finds out it's nothing. And even if it does become a depression, I can't see it developing much as the conditions it's heading into aren't that favorable -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:32, 16 July 2008 (UTC) :SHIPS is predicting a cat. 1, but the models are disagreeing on its track. CMC heads it into the Pacific to follow that AoI ahead of it, but re-emerges it in the Gulf. GFDL and GFS are predicting what looks like a landfall on Mexico near Tampico. HWRF brings it into the central Gulf but keeps it weak. It might be slow to develop, but if it does, I think Grenada, the Dutch Islands, Colombia, Nicaragua, Honduras, Mexico, and the US Gulf coast from Texas to Alabama may still need to watch this. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:55, 16 July 2008 (UTC) ::It's been almost 4 days now, and NOAA still predicts a high risk of development. If anything happens, it should be any day now. - Enzo Aquarius 02:32, 17 July 2008 (UTC) :::It was originally moving southwest, but now the models develop it a bit more. NHC is now sending ''another plane towards the storm, and a depression could develop when it drifts far enough northwest, and GFDL and HWRF even put New Orleans in danger. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:04, 17 July 2008 (UTC) ::::Still doesn't look like it has an LLCC but most of the intensity guidance gives it a name, consensus seeming to be 45 knots in 96 hours and a landfall somewhere in Belize in some form. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:53, 17 July 2008 (UTC) ::::Um, this is no problem, right? 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:52, 18 July 2008 (UTC) :::::Whoa, hello! This thing just got happy in a hurry! It looks like Tropical Depression Four right now. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:44, 18 July 2008 (UTC) :From the NHC: "AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15-20 MPH." - Enzo Aquarius 01:49, 19 July 2008 (UTC) ::I question that assessment. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:15, 19 July 2008 (UTC) Say goodbye to Houston! -- RattleMan 08:39, 19 July 2008 (UTC) :NHC is still going on about lack of development: "...THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH." - Enzo Aquarius 16:26, 19 July 2008 (UTC) ::Holy cow! The GFDL predicts it to strike on July 24, the percise date I predicted it would from five days ago! GFDL is now predicting a cat. 2 strike on the Texas/Louisiana border. If that previous forecast is right, though, then we could have a Rita-repeat. However, it looks like, if this storm does form, it's going to be Dolly instead of Cristobal, because TD three will probably be Cristobal. Like I said from the start, the US Gulf Coast needs to watch this, and so does the Mexican Gulf coast. Either way. I think we could get some heavy rains here in Southern Ontario a week from now, something no weather forecast will predict in time because they factor out tropical cyclones until their track is determined. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:52, 19 July 2008 (UTC) :::If it rains, it'll probably happen during the night. Seems to be a common trend in Ontario this month. :P - Enzo Aquarius 17:02, 19 July 2008 (UTC) ::::RattleMan, please don't scare me like that, that model makes it look almost exactly like the Galeveston Hurricane; exact same pressure, exact same location and faster winds. Entertaining worst case scenarios will age you in this business. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:14, 19 July 2008 (UTC) :::::Heh, sorry about that Eric. Anyway, it's been 108 years since the Galveston Hurricane; if it does happen, Galveston will be better prepared this time around. -- RattleMan 19:18, 19 July 2008 (UTC) ::::::It worked in 1915, but the seawall is just meant to keep the storm surge from demolishing the town. The 1915 storm still killed 367 people in the area. I think the citizens of Galveston County would just as soon not put it to the test. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:27, 19 July 2008 (UTC) :::::::Recon's being sent ''again! Looks like it will hit the Brownsville area, which was spared by Dean in 2007. Probably won't be much, but NHC says it already has TS-force gusts. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:07, 19 July 2008 (UTC) Geez. This much discussion for an invest that hasn't even gotten close to a TD yet. However convection is building and it's closing off. I predict a TD on sunday by 5pm. -Winter123 03:53, 20 July 2008 (UTC) :Recon aircraft detected no closed circulation, but NHC is still holding out for development in a day or two. - Enzo Aquarius 04:03, 20 July 2008 (UTC) ::Wow, here it is with TS-force winds but no closed circulation. If it does develop, I think it will skip TD atogether and directly become Dolly. Otherwise, it might go all this way without developing as did 99L of 2007. Models predict landfall on Yucatan, but I see a definite NW (as opposed to WNW) movement, which would take it directly into the Gulf, causing further strengthening. This is a rather large system, and apparently did have closed circulation at one point, but even passing close to land seems to hinder its development. Predicted to hit somewhere between Tampico and Brownsville, and if it does rain here I think we will have to wait till Sunday. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:34, 20 July 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Dolly NRL calls this dolly even though I see no strong closed circulation. If its a mistake this link will die. Edit, so does NOAA. -Winter123 15:28, 20 July 2008 (UTC) :It's about time. I don't know if it's a mistake, but NHC doesn't have it up yet but Wikipedia's calling it Dolly. Like I said, it already has TS winds, but we might have to wait until the 2/5 pm advisory for a confirmation. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:39, 20 July 2008 (UTC) ::It's OFFICIAL! NHC has issued its first advisory, and TS warnings are in effect for much of Yucatan, which means we will have 3-hour advisories. Not expected to develop into a hurricane, but could still affect the Texas/Mexico border area. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:35, 20 July 2008 (UTC) :::Oh boy did NHC ever botch this one. I think it's probably had a closed circulation for the better part of 24 hours now. Now we got a 40 knot storm jumpin' on top of some people. Watch out Gulf of Mexico; when anticyclones start parking over storms, bad things tend to happen. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:11, 20 July 2008 (UTC) ::::Brownsville needs to watch out, maybe even Galveston if it strengthens to a hurricane in the gulf, which i think it will -Winter123 18:19, 20 July 2008 (UTC) :::::NHC predicts strengthening after passing the Yucatan and entering the Gulf. Southern Texans better keep their eyes out for this system and get ready. There's something interesting though...I predicted this system would follow Dean/Felix's tracks...which it has basically. :P - Enzo Aquarius 01:01, 21 July 2008 (UTC) :Hurricane watches have been issued for the southern coast line of Texas. NHC still predicts strengthening to hurricane-status within two days. - Enzo Aquarius 15:59, 21 July 2008 (UTC) ::The problem is, that area is filled with oil platforms, low-lying deltas, and barrier islands. Even a moderate surge may be damaging to anything directly on the coast, but other than that I wouldn't expect much, unless it turns to a cat. 3 or something. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:27, 21 July 2008 (UTC) :::This could be bad. This has high bad potential. Striking further south in Mexico sooner is probably the best case scenario here but as it's hard for me to imagine a peak intensity lower than 70 knots, this isn't a great best case scenario. If you live anywhere between Port Mansfield, Texas and La Pesca, Mexico, you need to be cleaning out the grocery stores right now. And if the forecast gets any worse, a trip to the hardware store mightn't go astray. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:48, 21 July 2008 (UTC) ::::Come on now, this is a cat. 1 it's predicted to be. It could be bad for the Brownsville area, because it's supposed to rain on the Rio Grande for a full 60 hours, which could cause some flooding. This system is HUGE, its outer rainbands stretching 1200 km (750 mi). Gusts could reach 110 mph in places, though. Oil prices may rise, but if you think it's high in the US, here in Canada it's the equivalent of about $5.00 a gallon. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:58, 21 July 2008 (UTC) :::::Oh sh!t, here she comes http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:19, 22 July 2008 (UTC) :Expected to be a hurricane at landfall, 1 PM on Wednesday. Wouldn't be surprised if this thing became a category 2... - Enzo Aquarius 00:46, 22 July 2008 (UTC) ::Hurricane warnings are now being issued for the southern coast-lines of Texas. - Enzo Aquarius 03:59, 22 July 2008 (UTC) :::(damnit, you stole my thunder!) Hurricane warnings out. Fasten your seatbelts boys and girls, it's showtime. When the double red and black flags go up, it has a tendancy to get exhilarating rather quickly. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:03, 22 July 2008 (UTC) :I bet that Dolly will be upgraded to hurricane status by the next statement (2 PM). She's looking pretty developed. - Enzo Aquarius 16:51, 22 July 2008 (UTC) ::Maybe, but I'm banking more on 5pm. ''"The center of Dolly is beginning to show up on Brownsville radar." To quote the Joker in the new Batman movie: "And here...we...go." -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:42, 22 July 2008 (UTC) Hurricane Dolly As I said, as of the 5 pm advisory, Dolly is now a hurricane and forecast to make landfall near the US/Mexico border tomorrow afternoon. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:03, 22 July 2008 (UTC) Week Three 03L.CRISTOBAL AoI: Off the coast of South Carolina NHC's putting this as a low-risk for development, probably part of the frontal system and says "development is possible". If it does anything, it might hit Atlantic Canada or go into the open sea, or perhaps even create a Fujiwhara with Bertha, let's see if ti develops. 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:38, 13 July 2008 (UTC) :This one looks almost pitiful enough for me to say it may have a chance. There's a clearly defined cyclonic turning to it even though you could probably take a boat through it and not get all that wet. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:10, 13 July 2008 (UTC) ::Meh, looks like nothing to me. Don't predict anything significant. - Enzo Aquarius 19:05, 13 July 2008 (UTC) :::Hmm, 6/9 models predict TS within 120 hours, could split into different parts, one joining Bertha, another heading towards Atlantic Canada, and another re-emerging in the Gulf of Mexico. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:32, 13 July 2008 (UTC) ::::Well I am watching what just moved off Miami.Theres an upper level low moving east, but a weak midlevel spin right over miami. This is what i will be watching this evening. -Winter123 22:22, 13 July 2008 (UTC) AoI: Florida It's just redeveloped in the Gulf, off the coast of Florida, and NHC has issued a low-risk for development. It could again head three different ways: this time either heading northeast towards New York and Nova Scotia, or stalling in the Gulf, or quickly heading into land to Southern Ontario while extratropical. Let's see what happens. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:00, 16 July 2008 (UTC) :Interesting little system, but I'm still keeping my thought from earlier. I see some storms and rain, but not a TS or higher. 20% of TD. - Enzo Aquarius 16:33, 16 July 2008 (UTC) ::This is actually a new disturbance. Just because convection devlops from the same non-tropical weather system doesn't mean it's the same disturbance. For instance, a single tropical wave can and has produced two different storms. And plus, I think this is an entirely different low. The South Carolina one is now dissipating off the Outer Banks. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif With regards to it developing, I wouldn't hold my breath. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:24, 16 July 2008 (UTC) 96L.INVEST Woah, that was surprising. It's off the coast of Georgia (that's where you live), and heading northeast. NHC puts this as a medium-risk, but some models move this northeast while others stall it at the coast. SHIPS predicts a weak TS! Don't you just love it when these things happen?! 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:09, 17 July 2008 (UTC) :Probably good waves down by my condo on Saint Simons Island. We got the worst of Tammy in 2005, ten inches I'm told (I wasn't there). I would imaging it needs to get away from the coast for it to do much of anything though. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:59, 17 July 2008 (UTC) ::Wow, NHC has upgraded its chances up to high, it's expected to possibly form into a depression, and recon will be sent if nessecary. It might head up the US east coast and affect Atlantic Canada, probably won't be more than a TS, though. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:51, 18 July 2008 (UTC) :::Finally someone noticed! I held off only because I didn't want to have two consecutive posts. I noticed it at around noon and it looks pretty impressive. Two big areas to watch now in the Caribbean and here off the beautiful Georgia coast. Track models almost unanimously take it up the coast of the Carolinas and out to sea. Only three models give it a name though. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:36, 18 July 2008 (UTC) ::::"SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 PM THIS EVENING." Booya! -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:02, 19 July 2008 (UTC) :::::NHC has it at high-risk, so judging by that statement, it should be turning to TD status in just over an hour. - Enzo Aquarius 01:46, 19 July 2008 (UTC) ::::::High risk means it has a good ''chance, the above statement means it is happening...right now. Whenever NHC talks like that, bank on it. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:39, 19 July 2008 (UTC) Tropical Depression Three And there you have it. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/190253.shtml -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:56, 19 July 2008 (UTC) :NHC is predicting TS status later today, so we may have Cristobal later on. They are even predicting further development, so a category 1 hurricane is probable (along the coast of the eastern states? Ugh). I predict a tropical storm full-out landfall on the southwestern coast of Nova Scotia in 6 or 7 days. - Enzo Aquarius 16:17, 19 July 2008 (UTC) ::Now, a TS warning has been issued for part of South Carolina's coast and all of North Carolina's coast. I don't think this will be a hurricane, though, because as you head northwest of say, Maryland, the water gets cooler. However, NHC is predicting a TS landfall on Nova Scotia, possibly with similar reactions as to TS Gaston of 2004 (ie. people throwing rocks at the incoming waves). The water near the coast of North Carolina is VERY warm, but neither GFDL nor HWRF is predicting much development. Prepare for Cristobal! 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:58, 19 July 2008 (UTC) :::I say T-Minus 1 hour to Cristobal. - Enzo Aquarius 17:01, 19 July 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Cristobal And there we have it! http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/191754.shtml NHC is still predicting further strengthening. - Enzo Aquarius 18:01, 19 July 2008 (UTC) :Heyyy, Cris! Wazaupman? Not headed for the Carolinas are you? Hm,hm,hm? Didn't think so. Though I'm sure parts of the southeast would welcome the rain. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:19, 19 July 2008 (UTC) :: Lookst to be moving NNE, I think this will scrape both capes. (hatteras and cod). Though its the sickest TS ive seen in quite somet ime. -Winter123 20:51, 19 July 2008 (UTC) :::Whoa, time out; 55 knots? What happened to 45 knots? Anyone notice that the forecast intensity has been going up with every advisory? Cristobal looks decidedly unimpressive. It's gonna have to get happy pretty fast for that forecast to come to fruition. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:12, 19 July 2008 (UTC) ::::And are they sure it's going out to sea? The jet stream is way in canada and I don't see how. It looks like its barely moving or stalling. But maybe I'm just seeing things 0_o -Winter123 03:54, 20 July 2008 (UTC) :::::NHC predicts TS status through it's life up to a landfall at, as I mentioned prior, southwest Nova Scotia in 5 days. - Enzo Aquarius 04:00, 20 July 2008 (UTC) Wow, NHC is frustratingly stubborn most of the time. It's clearly about to pass over the outer banks as I said, and yet their forecast still calls for an abrubt turn so it can miss! ArGH -Winter123 15:24, 20 July 2008 (UTC) :Cristobal still looks like sh!t. It's center is pulled far away from the deep convection and it just looks like a t-shirt that just got shredded by a dog. I doubt the Outer Banks are going to get much more that blustery winds and steady rain...just your average crummy weather day. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:22, 20 July 2008 (UTC) ::Looks like the center just made landfall along the Outer Banks near Ocracoke. It also looks better organized. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 20:05, 20 July 2008 (UTC) :Looks like Nova Scotia may be spared from a landfall. NHC's predicting a slow about turn as it passes by Nova Scotia. - Enzo Aquarius 16:02, 21 July 2008 (UTC) ::Woah, just LOOK at the latest NHC 5-day! Notice anything unusual? That's right, it's expected to turn south and miss the Azores to the ''south!! Of course, I don't know what the NHC's thinking, because to survive all the way there, it has to survive: wind shear, frontal systems, 10C (50F) cold water, land interaction, and possible absorbtion by the Bermuda high. If it does survive all that, and as a TS which NHC very strangely depicts, then it has a chance to do one or more of the following RARE things possibly no other or very few storms have done before: Hit France, hit the Iberian Peninsula, enter the Mediterranean, hit the Azores, Hit the Canary Islands, or even make it all the way around the high to re-emerge as a Cape Verde system, all while as Cristobal, and maybe even break ANOTHER longetivity record in July!! That is, if it survives it there, which many models predict it to weaken. However, ALL models predict Cristobal or its remnants to turn south, and at that time, The Bermuda high will be right in the Atlantic, smaller than usual, which might allow a turn south to become another Cape Verde system! This probably has NEVER happened before! Of course, it's too early to tell now, and the water's pretty cool around the northern side of the high, especially around the Newfoundland area for which NHC predicts NO major weakening. A combination of ocean currents keeps the area around the east Atlantic moderately cool: The Gulf stream keeps the northern part warm, but the southern part is kept cool by the southward cool current. Of course, all this is quite unlikely and is only based on NHC forecasts, models, and surface water temperatures. If this does happen, however, it will truly make the 2008 season a TRUE record-breaker. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:45, 21 July 2008 (UTC) :::Whoa there Tiger, Cris is supposed to be extratropical before it even gets to Nova Scotia, why are we babbling about the Azores? A side note: 60 knots tomorrow? Wee! Now we have an actual storm. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:52, 21 July 2008 (UTC) ::::He's probably basing an Azores hit off of the current NHC track. If it follows the current track and heads southeast from Nova Scotia, it could hit the Azores, which would be very odd. Imagine a hurricane/tropical storm hit on western Africa. :P Unless it follows suit with Bertha and makes a quick turn northwards. Cristobal's future life may be quite interesting indeed. - Enzo Aquarius 20:12, 21 July 2008 (UTC) :::::I have my doubts that there's gonna be anything left of Cris by the time he gets within the same zip-code as the Azores. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:23, 22 July 2008 (UTC) ::::::Yeah it's going to be flying and sheared heavily, then south of the azores itll be dealing with african dust and dry air. Still, will be interesting to watch. -Winter123 08:21, 22 July 2008 (UTC) I'm actually considering taking that back. Cristobal is in an unbelievably favorable environment for this latitude at this time of year, as you can see on the water vapor. There is almost no shear by the looks of it. This could survive past the azores after all. And lol @ NHC desperately trying to cover their @$$es all the time- "...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON..." -Winter123 18:49, 22 July 2008 (UTC) :Unfortunate turn of phrase but that happens a lot. They're not trying to cover their asses, baroclinic forces often lead to last minute strengthening before the storm becomes extratropical as the storm is shifting to a new energy source. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:41, 22 July 2008 (UTC) 95L.INVEST AoI: near the Lesser Antilles Now, this is probably nothing at the moment, but approximately 6/9 models predict TS within 120 hours, 8/9 for a TD or above. We could be looking at two possible zones of development here: In the Southwest Caribbean near Panama and Costa Rica, or off the coast of Central America in the Pacific. There is also another system off the Coast of Cape verde, but only 3/9 models predict a TS or above, but it looks like nearly all predict a TD or above. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:32, 13 July 2008 (UTC) :You sure they're not looking at 94L? It's headed that general direction. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:13, 15 July 2008 (UTC) AoI: Southwestern Caribbean Just popped up as meduim potential on NHC website. The Atlantic has gotten interesting in a hurry. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:43, 16 July 2008 (UTC) :Actually, it's the same AoI as above. The models have been predicting this, and finally it's on the TWO near the Southwestern Caribbean. It's only got a day or so to develop in the Atlantic, but after that it might develop in the Pacific and chase the line of storms that are Elida and Fausto. Could become a TS, but probably in the Pacific. It's still going to give Nicaragua and Costa Rica some rain, though. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:59, 16 July 2008 (UTC) ::Well, since it's now got enough convection to warrent attention and NHC is only now advising on it, I think we should keep it a separate AoI. Previously, it was only a tropical wave that the models said could become something. Only now is it an actual disturbance. It should be an invest by now. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:14, 16 July 2008 (UTC) :::Evident rotation, but still requires more development. I predict a TD, maybe a TS, but nothing more if it develops. - Enzo Aquarius 02:33, 17 July 2008 (UTC) 95L.INVEST It's an invest now. NHC says a TD may develop before it crosses over into the Pacific. Models are dissagreeing on its track though. 2007Astro'sHurricane 17:08, 17 July 2008 (UTC) :(edit conflict)Could cause flooding over Central America, SHIPS predicts strengthening even with land interaction, might head into the East Pacific but LBAR predicts it to head over Texas. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:16, 17 July 2008 (UTC) ::I can't see anything more than a depression out of this storm now. It's too close to land. Maybe it'll become something in the Pacific. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:55, 17 July 2008 (UTC) :::TD on one side, another storm on the other. Has already happened this season, I think it's quite probable. - Enzo Aquarius 03:31, 18 July 2008 (UTC) :::It's just crossed into the East Pacific as 91E. INVEST. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:59, 19 July 2008 (UTC) 97L.INVEST AoI: Cape Verde Yes, I know what you're thinking, "you must be crazy, it's over land!" However, some models develop ''something out of this, but only GFS seems to really like it, and allows it to detatch from the main ITCZ. It likely won't develop, but this might be one to watch over the next week or so, which by then it will be (if it's still there) in the Central Atlantic. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:36, 18 July 2008 (UTC) :You read my mind, I was going to say that exact thing. Please don't post stuff that's further east than London (which this is). I don't start paying attention until it's west of Cape Verde. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:00, 18 July 2008 (UTC) ::I have been watching this since it was at 10E. Well defined LLC or MLC, plenty of convection. But yeah as skyfury says it's pointless to talk about them until they are on the coast. Depending on conditions at the time the land-water transition is often fatal -Winter123 06:49, 19 July 2008 (UTC) :::Now, CMC and the mm5fsu33 models have joined forces with GFS in seriously predicting development. Just like the prediction of Bertha, this might develop, but this time it might not miss. 2007Astro'sHurricane 17:01, 19 July 2008 (UTC) ::::Call me. If it's still there Friday, then we'll talk. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:20, 19 July 2008 (UTC) :::::Um, I'm a little scared. This "wave" is like 300 miles across and has a definite rotation. If this survives the transition to water (Saharan dust is its only obstacle) it'll be a massive major hurricane in no time. Which on the other hand it has a greater chance of recurving so. We'll see. Should come off the coast Sunday night or monday, and threaten the islands (or not) next weekend. -Winter123 03:50, 20 July 2008 (UTC) ::::::I've upgraded it to a full AoI, as part of the disturbance is coming off the coast. It looks particularily well-organised, and most models develop it. I think it might hit North Carolina as a cat. 3, but that's a pure guess O_0 . 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:45, 20 July 2008 (UTC) :::::::Changed the name to fit the change in status. I'm still not that impressed. I've seen waves alot scarier than that come off the coast and fall apart before they even pass Cape Verde. As I understand from the NHC's discussion of the Bermuda disturbance, wind shear sucks out in the Central Atlantic right now. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:27, 20 July 2008 (UTC) Going to come off at about 15N late tonight and i believe it will be a TD within a day of that. It has a well defined circulation and convection is firing near the center. The clouds that fanned out in front of it dissapated any dry air or saharan dust so I don't see anything stopping it. -Winter123 19:59, 20 July 2008 (UTC) :Actually, both CMC and GFS show heavy shear right when it emerges into the Atlantic, even though both models develop the system. I'm not sure how this will affect the system, but it's likely it might have to wait a few days. After that, I don't know, I don't see anything stopping it from becoming a hurricane if it survives the transition. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:30, 20 July 2008 (UTC) ::Well, the NHC seems to think highly of the wave... "A VIGOROUS AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN AFRICA A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF DAKAR SENEGAL. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY QUICKLY AFTER IT EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY." I've never heard such strong wording for something that hasn't even come off the coast. |'C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 00:43, 21 July 2008 (UTC) :::Wow. Just wow. Both CMC and GFS predict TWO systems to come off of Cape Verde. Based on this, I predict, by the end of July, 6 tropical storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. If this came true, it would closely match the record-breaking 2005 season, with 7 tropical storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes before August 1. This season's going to be a real record-breaker, as Bertha has already shown. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:56, 21 July 2008 (UTC) ::::I'm not writing this one off yet. If it makes it past 30W in one piece, I'll start showing this one some more respect. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:54, 21 July 2008 (UTC) :NHC is giving this a moderate risk, wouldn't be surprised to see this develop into Edouard. It's looking quite developed, so I definitely see this becoming a named storm. - Enzo Aquarius 20:04, 21 July 2008 (UTC) look realey impressive and also look like it will not affect the antilies for sure not the south expect it to turn out to sea maby the same track that bertha took 97L.INVEST There we have it. 13:51, 22 July 2008 (UTC) AoI: Southwest of Bermuda I know, another "nothing" AoI, but the mm5fsu33 a and b experimental models actually develop something out of this, and heads it towards the US east coast. The water's pretty warm there, but for anything to develop, it would first have to escape the grip of the Bermuda High, and most models just aren't allowing for that. It most likely will be nothing, but it's part of the hole in the Bermuda high that Bertha has punched in, and it will probably be nothing, but you never know. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:36, 18 July 2008 (UTC) :Why don't we post on the potentially threatening invests in the Caribbean and off the US east coast that appear on the verge of getting numbers rather than going on wild goose chases on stuff over Africa and passing rain showers left behind by Bertha. We have more pressing matters at the time being. Two potential new depressions, a record-setting former hurricane and two quite vigorous storms in the Eastern Pacific if anyone's bothering to pay attention to those. And that's not to mention the Category 2 typhoon that just spanked Taiwan. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:06, 18 July 2008 (UTC) ::Um, no. I saw this yesterday and almost posted on it but thought it had no chance. Then today it's a low risk by NHC! But they say environmental conditions are no good. Ha, bad environment didnt stop bertha! -Winter123 03:47, 20 July 2008 (UTC) :::Well, we'll see. Bertha was already well developed by the time it was in this general area. I don't expect anything significant. - Enzo Aquarius 04:07, 20 July 2008 (UTC) ::::Bertha just passed through somewhat unfavorable conditions, this thing's looking to form in worse conditions...quite different. I don't even think there's a drop of rain in this thing and with that kind of wind shear, it's not going to get any. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury''']] 17:33, 20 July 2008 (UTC) ::::Actually, NHC says there are thunderstorms and convection associated with the system. It will probably be consumed by the Bermuda High, though, unless it somehow keeps up and re-emerges near the Carolinas. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:33, 20 July 2008 (UTC)